President Donald Trump’s net approval among men fell eight points to negative 19 in the latest Economist/YouGov poll, his weakest result across five comparable registered-voter surveys since September. A Newsweek analysis found that Trump’s standing among men has not declined continuously: his approval fluctuated within a narrow range before falling sharply in the latest poll. James Druckman, the Martin Brewer Anderson Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester, told Newsweek that the latest movement “likely is meaningful, especially because it tracks the general trends.” “That is a real trend and similar to what we're seeing from other surveys,” Michael Montgomery, a political scientist and lecturer at the University of Michigan-Dearborn, said when asked by Newsweek about whether the five-poll sequence provided credible evidence that Trump’s support among men was weakening.
GOP candidates now face the possibility that dissatisfied supporters could switch parties, continue voting Republican further down the ballot, or simply stay home. In the Economist/YouGov survey conducted October 10–12, 40 percent of men approved of Trump’s performance and 59 percent disapproved, producing a net rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of negative 19. The poll questioned 1,403 registered voters and had an adjusted margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
That represented an eight-point deterioration from the October 2–5 survey, when Trump recorded 44 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval among men. The earlier poll sampled 1,381 registered voters and reported an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Previous results show why the latest number stands out without establishing a steady downward trend.
Trump registered 44 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval in the September 4–8 poll of 1,469 registered voters. From September 18–21, he stood at 43 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval among a sample of 1,401. His rating moved to 42 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval in the September 25–28 survey of 1,429 people.
Each of those polls had an adjusted margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Because the findings for men are drawn from only part of each national sample, they are subject to greater uncertainty than the published margins for all respondents. The sequence therefore provides a warning signal rather than conclusive evidence of a lasting realignment.
Druckman, an expert in American political behavior and survey methodology, said a weakening among men would be especially damaging because Trump has historically benefited from the “gender gap” in American politics. Beckwith said Republican candidates could try to limit the damage by emphasizing what they had delivered locally on the economy, although she noted that separating themselves from the president would be harder in statewide races. Caroline Welles, executive director of The First Ask and a former Democratic National Committee and Biden administration official, cautioned against treating one poll as evidence of a dramatic electoral shift.
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