President Donald Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic and Latino men, a critical group he flipped in the 2024 election, has plummeted in recent months as his administration faces growing backlash over the economy. Hispanic and Latino voters have historically broken for Democrats, but Trump made inroads with these voters in 2024, helping propel his return to the White House in key states, especially in places like Arizona and Nevada. Democrats have worked to win back Hispanic and Latino voters in the midterms, and a key question is whether there will be a reversion back to Democrats or if those GOP gains are permanent.
Winning back Hispanic and Latino men may be critical for Democrats. In 2024, Trump won Latino men by 10 points over former Vice President Kamala Harris, 54 percent to 44 percent, according to CNN exit polling data. In 2020, former President Joe Biden won Latino men by 23 points, 59 percent to 36 percent.
In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won Latino men by 31 points, 63 percent to 32 percent. Democrats winning back those voters could create a political challenge for Trump in the midterms in competitive states with a high Hispanic and Latino population like Texas. The shift in Hispanic and Latino polling numbers comes as Trump continues to lose ground nationwide in his approval rating.
Furthermore, Republicans in states like Florida and Texas redrew their congressional maps to favor their party ahead of the midterms, largely based around the 2024 numbers. A significant reversion among Hispanic and Latino voters could lead to more of those districts becoming competitive. In a statement to Newsweek on Monday, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle wrote that November 5, 2024 was “the ultimate poll” when “nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.” “No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more.
The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect,” he said. CNN data analyst Harry Enten on Monday highlighted new polling data showing Trump’s approval slipping among Hispanic voters. He pointed to polling data from CNN and SSRS showing that the president’s approval rating among Hispanic men is -41 points despite winning them by 10 points less than two years ago.
He said the shift is largely due to the economy, with data showing his approval on the economy among Hispanic men stood at -49 points, despite being more trusted by 11 points over former Vice President Kamala Harris in the fall of 2024. He explained that this could have major implications for the midterms, as Hispanic men favor Democrats by 20 points in the midterms. That data is backed up by some other polls, though many pollsters do not release crosstab data for Hispanic men specifically, as that is often a small subset that may not always be statistically significant.
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