Young Americans have long been told that a college degree is the surest path to landing a good job. But more recent job market data suggests that, at least for recent graduates entering the workforce today, that advantage may be shrinking. While unemployment among workers with bachelor's degrees remains lower overall than for those without degrees, younger non-college workers are experiencing some of the strongest labor market conditions in decades, according to a new Burning Glass Institute report.
At the same time, the New York Fed has reported that recent college graduates are facing higher unemployment and underemployment rates. This raises new questions about the value of a four-year degree in today’s labor market, experts say. For years, college graduates generally enjoyed lower unemployment rates and higher earnings than their peers without degrees.
While that still remains true in the long run, new data suggests the transition from school to work has become significantly more difficult for new graduates. However, young workers without degrees are able to find opportunities in sectors facing persistent labor shortages like the trades. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Labor Market for Recent College Graduates tracker, labor market conditions for recent graduates remained challenging through the second quarter of 2026.
The unemployment rate for recent college graduates, which is defined as those ages 22 to 27 with at least a bachelor's degree, was about 5.7 percent in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate, which measures graduates working in jobs that typically do not require a four-year degree, climbed to roughly 42 percent. Still, Brian Daniel, the founder of staffing agency The Celebrity PA Network, said candidates with a college degree still invariably have an advantage.
Because employers are flooded with applications, they can be very selective about who they choose,” Daniel said. The think tank found the unemployment gap between college graduates and non-graduates has narrowed to its smallest level in roughly 30 years. Recent grads’ lived realities reflect this as well.
A degree gives them a baseline of verified competence. But it’s only a starting point.” So while degree holders may still enjoy an advantage overall, young workers without degrees are no longer facing the same labor market disadvantages that characterized much of the 2000s and 2010s. At the same time, skipping college does not automatically create an advantage.” The answer to whether it’s easier to get a job without a degree depends on what comparison is being made.
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