Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has reached his largest polling lead over Republican Mike Rogers in the race for the Michigan Senate seat, according to a new poll. El-Sayed leads Rogers in the recent Marist survey, which found that 51 percent of more than 1,000 registered Michigan voters supported El-Sayed, while 44 percent backed Rogers. This seven-point lead is the largest El-Sayed has seen since the campaign began in April 2025, matched only twice before.
El-Sayed is working to hold onto the Democratic seat in the battleground state next month, left open by Senator Gary Peters' surprise retirement. Republicans currently control the Senate with a 53-47 majority, and Democrats hope to flip it in the midterms. The poll surveyed 1,235 registered Michigan voters between September 24 and 27, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
El-Sayed is a progressive candidate who has campaigned on introducing Medicare for All, taxing billionaire wealth and implementing environmental protections. The new Marist survey shows El-Sayed with the highest lead he has seen in polls so far, mirroring one he achieved before in August, when Susquehanna Polling and Research found a 46 percent to 39 percent margin among 800 likely voters, and earlier this month, when Suffolk University Boston gave El-Sayed a 47-percent lead over Roger’s 40 percent. The Susquehanna poll took place between August 11 and 17 and reports a margin of error of +/-3.46 percentage points.
Suffolk University Boston questioned 500 likely voters between September 16 and 20 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. El-Sayed has often led in polls, including recently with Republican pollster Rasmussen Reports, but usually by smaller margins. Rogers faces the challenge of being the incumbent federal party and seems to be focusing on attracting moderate voters who may be uneasy with El-Sayed’s progressive politics.
El-Sayed’s strongest support is coming from younger voters, women and college graduates, according to the new Marist poll. Among Gen Zers and millennials, 67 percent supported El-Sayed and 28 percent Rogers, while 53 percent of women surveyed backed El-Sayed, compared with 41 percent for Rogers. El-Sayed led Rogers by 25 points among college graduates, 60 percent to 35 percent.
El-Sayed led Rogers among independents by a smaller margin (3 points), 48 percent to 45 percent, within the margin of error. Keeping Michigan's seat blue is crucial for Democrats, who are aiming to regain control of the Senate in November. Beyond that, this race gives progressives in the Democratic Party a chance to show moderates that their primary success can translate into victory in a closely contested general election.
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