President Donald Trump has embarked on a campaign swing across the country, hoping to shore up conservative support and stave off a blue wave in next month's midterms. He is slated to travel back to Texas on October 27 to help Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton win a race that even the most hopeful Democrat still sees as too close to call. His trip comes as some have argued that Trump's appearances have not improved numbers in key races.
Democratic Texas hopeful James Talarico, the Texas state representative vying to become the first Democrat to win statewide in the Lone Star State since 1994, has consistently outperformed Paxton in almost every poll, but by small margins. As flawed as Paxton has been as a candidate, carrying the baggage of a 2023 impeachment and acquittal and securities fraud charges resolved in 2024, polling averages reveal a tight race for the crucial seat. In an election as tight as this one, some GOP operatives have warned that Trump's presence might be harmful to their candidates.
The president's approval ratings continue to slide and polls show that voters are dissatisfied with gas prices, the cost of living and the Iran war. But in Texas, a solid GOP state, Trump's appearances—including the unprecedented midterm Republican National Convention in Dallas last month—haven't appeared to hurt Paxton and the race has tightened in polls since the president rallied in San Antonio earlier this month. Paxton senior adviser, Nick Maddux, told Newsweek the campaign welcomes Trump's backing.
"AG Paxton is thankful for the support and knows how important Texas is to keeping the majority, which is why he's on the ground every day talking to Texans, raising money, and taking his message directly to the people,” Maddux said. Newsweek compared surveys from the same pollsters conducted before and after the Dallas convention and San Antonio rally. The results signal a tightening race, though a late advertising blitz may have played as much of a role as the president's visits.
Speaking to reporters last week, Trump made the case for himself. "Since I've been there, you know, these rallies have changed the whole ballgame," he said. "I think Ken Paxton now is leading by a little bit." In polling surrounding the convention, the race barely moved.
Texas Public Opinion Research, polling for Slingshot, had Talarico up 6 points in late August and up 5 in mid-September. A University of Texas/YouGov survey showed Talarico ahead by 3 in both time frames. Emerson College moved 2 points toward Talarico, from a 1-point Paxton lead in August to a 1-point Talarico edge in mid-September.
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