An ESPN forecasting model supports a major upset for a 2026 end-of-season honor. Jacob Misiorowski is a -5000 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the National League Cy Young Award. However, Bradford Doolittle's AXE ratings give Christopher Sanchez a higher score than the Milwaukee Brewers flamethrower.
AXE weights WAR from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference and other metrics such as win shares and win probablilty added. Sanchez has a total score of 154.5, besting Misiorowski (150.9) and Philadelphia Phillies teammate Jesus Luzardo (148.6). Doolittle doesn't necessarily think voters should use that grade to put Sanchez atop their NL Cy Young ballots.
"I favor Misiorowski for the award, even if my own metric suggests it should be Sanchez," Doolittle wrote. "So much of Sanchez's edge in AXE is fueled by a strangely big lead in bWAR that I don't think is a real thing. Of course, it's not the only bottom-line metric in which Sanchez leads, so maybe we're all ignoring reality.
Either way, Sanchez's stinker against the struggling Nationals this week in the midst of the Phillies' playoff push did no favors for his Cy Young case." Misiorowski may have already locked down the award with a 1.89 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 243 strikeouts in 28 dominant starts. The 24-year-old has allowed more than three runs in just one outing. Sanchez, meanwhile, has seen his ERA climb to 2.93 after allowing six runs to the Houston Astros and five against the Washington Nationals.
The southpaw has surrendered at least 10 hits in five starts, contributing to a 1.22 WHIP. Despite those discrepancies, Doolittle's model uses metrics that favor volume. Sanchez ranks second to Sandy Alcantara with 193.2 innings pitched, comfortably ahead of Misiorowski's 166.1 Misiorowski could have at least one more start to cement his Cy Young case before leading Milwaukee into the playoffs.
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