Republican hopeful Steve Hilton faces an uphill battle to win California’s gubernatorial race even after improving in recent polls, with the latest surveys showing him trailing Democrat Xavier Becerra. The most recent poll, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) from September 4 to 10, among 1,098 likely voters, shows Becerra with 60 percent support, a 22-point lead over Hilton at 38 percent. Hilton has improved by two points compared with the previous PPIC poll.
The winner will replace current governor Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited. Newsweek reached out to Becerra and Hilton campaigns for comment on Thursday. The PPIC survey echoes several polls showing Becerra with a double-digit lead.
A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted August 3-9 among 2,310 likely voters in partnership with the Los Angeles Times found Becerra ahead 55 percent to 37 percent, an 18-point margin. An earlier PPIC poll conducted June 29-July 6 put Becerra's lead at 25 points, 61 percent to 36 percent. A Kreate Strategies poll conducted in mid-June found a similar 25-point gap.
The only poll that has not shown a double-digit margin was commissioned by Hilton's campaign. Conducted August 14-16, the poll found Becerra leading Hilton 49.2 percent to 41 percent among 912 registered voters, with 9.8 percent undecided. David Wolfson, a pollster and faculty member in Columbia University's Political Analytics graduate program, conducted the poll.
In a statement shared with Newsweek after the Wolfson poll, Matt Ciepielowski, campaign manager for the Steve Hilton for Governor campaign, pointed to the results as evidence that Californians are tired of “16 years of one-party rule.” “This summer, polls had Becerra ahead by 18 to 25 points. Now that gap is just eight points. The more Californians learn about Becerra’s record and hear Steve Hilton’s plan for $3 gas, cutting electric bills in half, and a home you can afford to buy, the closer this race gets.
The momentum is with us, and we’re going to fight for every vote and win.” The gap between the independent polls and the Hilton campaign's survey is also reflected in prediction markets, which have barely moved despite the latest poll. In recent weeks, Polymarket has put Becerra's odds of winning in November at 96 percent, compared with 4 percent for Hilton. Kalshi shows a similar spread, with Becerra at about 95.7 percent and Hilton at 4.3 percent.
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