The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has sent shock waves across Germany – and the world – by trouncing the opposition in a state election over the weekend. But will the party actually be able to govern? In an election that saw record-high levels of voter turnout, the AfD captured more than 44 per cent of the vote in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.
This is more than double the party’s result in the 2021 state election. As is normal in German politics, however, the AfD has fallen short of an absolute majority and would need to go into coalition with another party to govern – if only just. Traditionally, Germany’s major political parties on both the left and right have committed to maintaining a “firewall” between the AfD and government.
This means none of them would go into coalition with the far-right party. The result has nonetheless threatened to upend German politics, which has successfully prevented a far-right party from returning to power since the Second World War. The AfD has garnered more votes than any party in Saxony-Anhalt in more than ten years.
This is the same branch that the government body charged with protecting German democracy has formally described as an extremist right-wing party because of its “numerous anti-Muslim, racist and antisemitic statements”. The concern now is what this state election presages about far-right successes to come. Political analysts have long tried to paint the AfD as an East German phenomenon – and continue to do so.
But this is only part of the story. In the most recent federal election in 2025, the AfD was the second-most popular party in many German electorates. And in almost all national polls this year, the AfD comes out on top as the country’s most popular party.
Even a coalition of Germany’s historically strongest parties – the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens – would, on current polling, struggle to form a federal government today. Tellingly, this lurch to the far right in Saxony-Anhalt came at the expense of the CDU, which leads Germany’s current federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. As an exit poll after the election made clear, 88 per cent of voters in the state believed that if Merz’s government had implemented better policies, the AfD would not be as strong in the state.
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