This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: A number of pressures have converged on food production over the past year, and their effects are likely to show up in our shopping carts this winter. Farmers have faced increasingly erratic weather, influenced by climate change and the El Niño phenomenon, while international conflicts have pushed up the cost of fuel, fertilizer and other essential inputs.
These pressures compound one another: adverse and unpredictable weather reduces crop yields, while higher fertilizer and energy costs make it more expensive to produce and process food. This will affect not only farmers' livelihoods and shoppers' wallets but also potentially the quality, volume and nutritional value of the food on our shelves, as manufacturers turn to cheaper alternative ingredients to limit overall price increases. Here are five familiar foods that illustrate how this could play out this winter: Chocolate is a comfort food with the ability to boost mood, and its production supports the livelihoods of nearly 6 million smallholder farmers worldwide, mostly in West Africa.
This reflects the manual labor required to harvest cocoa, meaning that as a crop, it cannot easily be grown on an industrial scale. However, cocoa trees are sensitive to their environment. The effect of drought on cocoa yields has long been recognized, but recent research shows that intense periods of heavy rainfall can be a problem too.
They can reduce the activity of the flying insects required to pollinate cocoa flowers while increasing the likelihood of fungal diseases that decimate crops. The current El Niño, set to continue into 2027, is expected to exacerbate erratic weather patterns, potentially leading to both droughts and heavy rainfall in some cocoa-growing regions, which will continue to affect supply chains. The resulting yield reductions caused a huge price spike in 2024, which was then passed on to consumers—a bar of Dairy Milk rose more than 60% in price compared with 2021, for instance.
Prices have since fallen somewhat but are still far above historic levels and are expected to rise again soon as a result of a particularly poor yield this year. But price is not the only thing that can change. As cocoa becomes more expensive, manufacturers may look for ways to swap more expensive cocoa butter for cheaper alternative ingredients like palm oil.
Although palm oil has some functional properties that maintain a smooth texture and shelf stability, it is less often found in premium chocolate products and can have a different mouthfeel. Unlike chocolate, potatoes aren't just a luxury or comfort item. They're a staple of European diets and provide a healthy yet affordable starch source.
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