From the moment President Trump completed his comeback in 2024, voters had good reason to think that the Democrats would retake the House this November. The president’s party has lost ground in all but two elections since 1934, including the two Trump-era midterms, where the party in power lost 40 seats (Republicans, 2018) and 9 seats (Democrats, 2022). REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK: HOUSE CONTROL COULD HINGE ON WHETHER THE OLD POLITICAL RULES STILL APPLY With Republicans currently hanging by a thread in the House, most of the work has already been done for Team Blue.
The number of seats that will change hands is another question, and here, Trump’s signature policies are playing a big role. As we enter fall, Democrats are enjoying their widest polling lead of the year. Voters say they prefer the Democrat to the Republican in their district by an average of 7 points in new polls (49%-42%).
LEE CARTER: THE SUMMER POLLS MISSED THE POINT: VOTERS ARE MOVING — AND THE MIDTERMS BEGIN Democrats perform even better among likely voters with an 11-point average lead (53%-42%). That’s a larger and more consistent lead than the GOP had this time four years ago. These polls suggest that we’re heading for a "blue wave" like the one Democrats rode eight years ago. (That wave probably won’t rise as high as it once did.
Thanks to redistricting, there are fewer seats in play for either party, so think of a gain of a few dozen as the modern equivalent of 40.) Still, there are six weeks until election day, and there are some things we don’t know. With all signs currently pointing to a good Democratic night, where could it possibly go wrong? The administration’s decision to go to war with Iran is proving costly for the GOP.
RECORD GAS PRICES SQUEEZE AMERICANS AS SUMMER TRAVEL SEASON ENDS, MIDTERMS LOOM AND IRAN WAR WAGES ON Gas prices sit at $4.48 today, up 50% from $2.98 at the start of the war, and increasing at a higher rate this month. Trump’s worst ratings have been on inflation and the cost of living, and 61% of voters called gas prices a "major problem" in last week’s Fox News Poll. Ashley Hinson became the second Republican Senate candidate to call for an end to the war (the first was Sen.
Susan Collins, in April). No doubt many vulnerable House GOP incumbents feel the same way. In an election that looks less like an embrace of Democrats than a rejection of Trump’s agenda, a change of course in Iran would have an impact.
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