A new MRP poll suggests Labour would remain the largest party if a general election were held now, but would fall well short of an overall majority as Reform surged into second place. Behind those headline figures, research from Survation and 38 Degrees casts new light on five distinct voter groups who are collectively defined as the “progressive majority”. These people share concerns about living costs and the NHS, but differ over immigration, the environment, political trust and the pace of change needed to address the UK’s policies.
To build a parliamentary majority, Labour must hold on to the groups that have remained relatively loyal, while winning back voters drifting towards the Greens, Reform or political disengagement. In short, they need enough of this “progressive majority” to stay within the fold. Labour strategists – including Keir Starmer’s former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney – have often been wary of a tactic that seeks only to unite the progressive bloc.
But while it would result in Labour losing huge swathes of seats that it won in 2024, it may be enough to lock Nigel Farage out of No 10 if there were significant tactical voting. It also gives a clue to how Andy Burnham might seek to structure his priorities – and why the cost of living will be at the heart of the prime minister’s policy platform at the Labour conference, one with salience for voters considering either the Greens or Reform. The charts below, which are based on polling of more than 8,000 voters, show how Labour’s support cuts across age, class and geography – and reveal five distinct voter groups with contrasting priorities.
The researchers identified five groups of people who collectively make up what they call the “progressive majority”. It is a key group of voters who they argue the Labour government should be targeting if they want to win an overall majority at the next general election. Rooted traditionalists: Older, economically left-leaning voters who are highly concerned about immigration and less interested in environmental issues.
Many moved from the Conservatives to Labour but could shift again, including towards Reform. Cost of living pressures and NHS access provide the strongest common ground with other progressive voters. Open-hearted idealists: Affluent, highly educated and the most socially liberal, pro-immigration and politically engaged group.
They lean strongly towards Labour, the Greens and Lib Dems and are particularly open to tactical voting. Bills, NHS access and progressive taxation matter most, while tougher immigration policies risk alienating them. Quiet persuadables: The youngest and least politically committed segment, often holding centrist or uncertain views.
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