Democrats have their eyes set on the Lone Star State for the November elections. Although Texas has for decades voted reliably Republican, polling suggests it could be more competitive this year as President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating could drive down support for Republicans. Still, Texas is a difficult state for Democrats.
It backed Trump by 14 points in 2024 and hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since the 1990s. Democrats grew hopeful about the state’s trends in the 2010s as suburban areas near Austin, Dallas and Houston drifted leftward, but the state snapped back to Republicans due to Democrats’ collapse with Hispanic voters. The midterms are a critical test for Texas Democrats and will gauge whether they can claw back support in both the suburbs and among Hispanic voters, or whether Republicans will be able to keep the state solidly conservative.
Abbott has been viewed as the favorite against Hinojosa, a state representative, though some polls point to a tightening race. But the Senate race between Paxton, the state’s attorney general, and Talarico, a state representative, is expected to be one of the most competitive races this year. Newsweek reached out to the Abbott, Hinojosa, Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment via email.
The new survey from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) found a widening divide between Abbott and Paxton, the two Republicans who will be leading the ballot this year. In the poll, Paxton underperformed Abbott by 13 points. Such an underperformance would be a problem for Paxton, Brandon Rottinghaus, professor of political science at the University of Houston, told Newsweek.
His controversies, high unfavorable ratings, bruising primary and difficulty winning independents are preventing him from fully benefiting from Texas' Republican baseline,” he said. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from August 21 to 24, 2026 and had a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points. Abbott held a 7-point lead over Hinojosa, 49 percent to 42 percent, with 7 percent undecided and 2 percent saying they would vote for other candidates.
It’s Abbott’s strongest showing in any poll since June and marks his strongest showing in TPOR polling. In July, the pollster gave him a 3-point lead, 45 percent to 42 percent. He led by 5 points in both May, 46 percent to 41 percent, and April, 48 percent to 43 percent.
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