A new poll of the Texas Senate race delivered four warning signs to Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton as he faces an increasingly competitive race against Democratic state Representative James Talarico. Democrats view the Texas Senate race as a potential pickup opportunity in the 2026 midterm elections, despite the state traditionally being Republican-leaning. The Lone Star State backed President Donald Trump by 14 points in 2024, but several recent polls have given Talarico a slim lead over Paxton.
Flipping Texas is seen as an uphill battle for Democrats, but the party believes 2026 may be the year they can do so due to Trump’s declining national approval rating weighing down Republicans, concerns about the economy and cost-of-living driving frustration with Republicans and a Republican nominee who is not particularly popular among the state’s electorate. Paxton unseated incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary, as some Republicans viewed Cornyn as insufficiently conservative. But many analysts viewed Cornyn as a candidate better suited to win over independents in Texas, which is particularly important in a less favorable year for the GOP.
The new poll from the University of Texas and Texas Politics Project underscored the race's competitive nature. It surveyed 1,200 registered voters from August 5 to 13, 2026, with a margin of error of ±2.83 percentage points. The poll contained four major warning signs for Paxton: a drop in his support from June, lagging GOP motivation to vote, worse favorability numbers than Talarico and Trump’s approval being underwater in the state.
Newsweek reached out to the Paxton and Talarico campaigns for comment via email. Paxton’s support has slipped since the pollster’s previous survey in June 2026, with the new poll giving Democrat Talarico a 3-point lead. Paxton’s support stood at 39 percent, compared to Talarico’s 42 percent.
Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received support from 3 percent of respondents, while 1 percent responded, “someone else.” Crucially, 14 percent were still undecided about how they would vote in this election. That marks a shift from their June poll, which found Paxton up a single point over Talarico, 43 percent to 42 percent. That poll surveyed 1,200 registered voters from June 5 to 12, 2026.
The biggest shift in Paxton’s support came from Republicans. His support among his own party’s voters fell from 84 percent to 79 percent, according to the survey. Talarico had support from 5 percent of Republicans.
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