Texas Governor Greg Abbott's reelection campaign took a new blow on Wednesday after leaked audio captured Ken Paxton, the state's Republican attorney general and U.S. Senate nominee, telling donors that the governor is "struggling," as polls show a much closer race than almost anyone expected a year ago. The recording, obtained by Rolling Stone, comes from a small Washington, D.C., fundraiser on September 24.
In it, Paxton says Abbott's race against Democrat Gina Hinojosa remains tight despite the governor's advantages in money and name recognition. "Yes, Abbott is struggling," Paxton says on the recording. "And he didn't have any primary with all the negative ads.
So, [I have] disadvantages." At another point, Paxton tells an attendee that Abbott is "struggling, but he has a lot of money," then adds of Hinojosa, "She has none." At the end of the clip, Paxton concedes that Republicans in the Texas Legislature will probably lose some seats to Democrats. Abbott, who is seeking a record fourth term, won each of his three previous races for governor by double digits. Polls released this week show him ahead of Hinojosa by 1 to 4 points, while two other recent surveys have her narrowly in front.
No Democrat has won statewide in Texas in 32 years. With early voting starting Monday, both the Senate and governor's races sit within a few points. Newsweek reached out to Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns for comment on Wednesday.
Abbott is ahead in most of the newest surveys, by margins far thinner than the ones he is used to. A Marist University poll of 1,196 likely voters, conducted October 8 to 11, had Abbott ahead 49 percent to 45 percent. A ReconMR/Siena Research Institute poll of 617 likely voters, conducted October 5 to 8, had Abbott up by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent.
A University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov poll of 850 likely voters from late September had Abbott ahead 48 percent to 44 percent. Hinojosa came out narrowly ahead in two others. A University of Texas/YouGov poll of 861 likely voters, conducted September 25 to October 5, had Hinojosa at 49 percent and Abbott at 48 percent.
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