Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, is facing an increasingly competitive challenge from Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa, according to two new polls of the gubernatorial race released Thursday. Long viewed as a Republican stronghold, Texas appears to be emerging as a more competitive state in this year’s midterms, as Democrats believe President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating could allow them to expand the battleground in November. The new polls suggest Hinojosa is gaining ground on Abbott, who has been viewed as the favorite to win a fourth term.
A survey from ReconMR and Siena University gave Hinojosa her first polling lead against Abbott of the election cycle, while an Emerson College poll also pointed to a narrowing race, delivering a new warning sign for Republicans about their chances in the Lone Star State. Still, flipping Texas is a heavy lift for Democrats. It backed Trump by 14 points in 2024 and hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since the 1990s.
Democrats have hoped to make inroads in the state in the past, such as when former Representative Beto O’Rourke nearly unseated GOP Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, but have fallen short despite a leftward drift in cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston. Hinojosa celebrated the polling in a statement on Thursday. In November, we’re going to end Greg Abbott’s 30-year political career,” she wrote.
Newsweek reached out to Abbott’s campaign for comment via email. The ReconMR poll showed Hinojosa up 4 points over Abbott, 49 percent to 45 percent. It is notable because it is the first survey to show Hinojosa with a lead, as other polls have favored the incumbent governor.
Her lead was bolstered by a strong showing among independent voters, who backed her 65 percent to 27 percent in the new poll. It marks a shift from the pollster’s earlier surveys. In July, Abbott led Hinojosa by a single point, 46 percent to 45 percent.
In June, the pollster found him up 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent. In the poll, 45 percent of respondents viewed Abbott favorably, while 53 percent viewed him unfavorably. Meanwhile, 48 percent of respondents said they viewed Hinojosa favorably, and 27 percent viewed her unfavorably.
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