CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Democrats have a “big siren warning sign" ahead of Election Day and it is close polling margins in key Senate toss-up races. Enten said the Senate is "too close to call," as the polling shows many races within the margin of error and Democrats will have to wait until Election Day to see if polling is right, or if Republicans outperform and remain in control. Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them.
Republicans now hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have slipped as households across America are consistently flagging affordability concerns. As the president is traversing the nation, stumping for Republicans in key races, he has been handed unfavorable polling including a record low approval for both terms in office in a new Fox News poll.
A handful of senate races are rated as toss-ups by forecasters leading up to Election Day. Sabato’s Crystal Ball lists Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Maine as toss-ups. The Cook Political Report lists Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups.
Polling is neck and neck in nearly all of the races, many falling within the margin of error for a statistical tie. Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek: "Democrats have a real path, but Enten is right that it is still too close to call. The toss-ups in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Alaska are all within a few points.
Democrats need four net seats, and the polls currently give them enough leads or ties to get there if the numbers hold. "The catch is the same one Enten noted. Republican candidates have often outperformed the averages by 3 or 4 points in recent cycles.
A normal miss in their direction flips several of those races and keeps the Senate Republican. With less than three weeks left, Democrats look better than they did a month ago. The map is not locked in either way." In Kansas, recent polling shows Democrat Adam Hamilton in the lead by a couple of points or in a dead heat with Republican incumbent, Senator Roger Marshall.
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