This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: There is no credible scenario in which expansion at Heathrow can go ahead without blowing a hole in the UK's legally binding climate targets, new modeling published today by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at The University of Manchester reveals. The report, commissioned by the environmental justice organization Friends of the Earth, provides the first detailed analysis of whether Heathrow expansion is compatible with the UK's legal carbon budgets.
Recent approvals of airport expansion at Gatwick, Stansted, Luton and many other locations mean that UK aviation is already projected to exceed its share of the Seventh Carbon Budget (2038–42) by between 21% and 50%, depending on how much sustainable aviation fuel materializes. That is before any Heathrow expansion takes place. The analysis concludes that the two technologies relied on to allow passenger growth or airport expansion to fit within carbon budgets—sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and greenhouse gas removals (GGR)—are not even close to being on track for sufficient capacity within the required time frame.
The report concludes that Heathrow expansion cannot credibly meet the UK's climate targets based on three key findings: The lead researchers, Dr. Lois Pennington, Professor Alice Larkin and Dr. Chris Jones, recommend that decision-makers reject any proposed expansion at Heathrow Airport.
Pennington, research fellow at the Tyndall Centre, said, "Every aviation scenario the UK government has published overshoots the carbon budget that Parliament has legislated, before a third runway at Heathrow is even taken into account. "Our analysis shows that aviation cannot continue to grow if the sector is to make a proportionate contribution to meeting the UK's carbon budgets. Sustainable aviation fuels and carbon removals can contribute to limiting aviation emissions, but there is currently no evidence that these technologies can support the scale of aviation expansion envisaged by the government.
"Further aviation expansion carries a significant risk of exacerbating climate impacts by relying on the growth of technologies that are unlikely to materialize in the time frame needed. "The UK is experiencing another exceptionally hot summer, while record-breaking severe wildfires have burned across Western Europe. The government must reassess the case for expansion.
Climate policy must be grounded in what we can demonstrate and substantiate with evidence, rather than what we hope may become possible." Mike Childs, head of policy, science and research at Friends of the Earth, said, "After this summer of record-breaking heat and nearly 3,000 excess deaths, this third runway is the equivalent of pouring gasoline on a raging wildfire. Discover the latest in science, tech, and space with over 100,000 subscribers who rely on Phys.org for daily insights. d research that matter—daily or weekly. "The evidence is clear: There is no route where expansion at Heathrow can be in line with our legally binding climate targets.
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