Aug. 26 is going to be a very important day in the stock market, with perhaps the most anticipated earnings report of Q2: Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA). This earnings season has seen a lot of wild share price movements following reports, and I expect Nvidia's to be no different. However, after looking at historical trends, I think there's a good chance for a move in the right direction.
But how can investors come to the conclusion that Nvidia's Q2 report will result in a stock pop? By looking at where the stock has been at this point in previous years. This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again.
In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue » Nvidia is a far different company now than it was at any previous point during its lifecycle, so looking at its data five to ten years back isn't really helpful.
Instead, I think investors should focus on where the stock was at this time in 2024 and 2025, as that is the best comparison investors have. Prior to Q2 results being reported at the end of August 2024, this is how the stock was valued from a forward earnings standpoint. After earnings, the stock dropped, but that was because it was pretty highly valued at over 40 times forward earnings.
However, the stock largely rebounded from that decline in short order. In 2025, a drop also occurred after Q2 earnings. It recovered from most of that 2025 decline, too.
However, in August 2025, it was trading at about the same valuation levels as in August 2024: rising to nearly 40 times forward earnings, then falling to about 35 times forward earnings. Nvidia isn't even close to that range now. At 25 times forward earnings, Nvidia is pretty reasonably priced heading into the next earnings report.
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