Oil exports from the Gulf have resumed significantly in recent days, despite a surge in attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz, maritime experts and trackers say. Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, recovered to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September, while crude exports from the wider Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on 14 days during the month, maritime intelligence firm Kpler reported. However, the recovery has come as attacks on tankers increase and shipping companies face higher freight, insurance and security costs.
On Tuesday, 12 crew members on a Panama-flagged tanker were injured in an attack by an unknown projectile while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. Before the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day and shipments through it accounted for about 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies. In retaliation for US-Israeli attacks, Iran effectively closed the strait, while Washington has maintained a blockade on Iranian ports.
So, how are ships getting through the strait, and how long can producers maintain the increased flow through one of the world’s most important energy corridors while attacks and harassment of ships continue? The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has continued to deteriorate even as more oil moves out of the region. At least seven incidents involving tankers have been reported in the past week, according to shipping intelligence service Marisks.
The Kuwaiti-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) MT Kazimah III caught fire after being struck on October 1 while travelling through the strait, causing a fire on board. Five staff were safely rescued following the incident. On October 4, the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi was struck northeast of Oman’s Jazirat Umm al-Fayarin, damaging its engine room, with no casualties reported.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden, where Iran-backed Houthis are targeting Saudi-linked shipping, since October 2. Threats continued on Monday, when a tanker entering the Hormuz strait near Oman was hailed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and ordered to turn around or risk attack, according to UKMTO. Despite those attacks, oil exports from the region have risen dramatically.
According to provisional data from Kpler, the seven-day moving average for Middle East crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 30, compared with an average of about 18 million bpd during the 12 months before the war. Vortexa separately estimated that the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports had reached 18.6 million bpd. However, not all of that oil is actually being shipped through Hormuz.
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