Democrats’ lead over Republicans on the generic ballot in the 2026 midterms is more modest compared to their advantage during President Donald Trump’s first midterm in 2018, even as his administration's popularity falls to record lows in the latest polls. Election season is kicking off after Labor Day weekend, and Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances of flipping the House majority in November. Polling suggests Trump’s popularity has waned since his return to office amid growing concerns around the economy, cost of living and the unpopular war in Iran.
Democrats believe Trump’s disapproval will translate to victories for their candidates in key districts. The latest polls give Democrats a lead over Republicans, and history is on their side to win a House majority. In the past, when a president’s approval rating is low, the party out of power tends to do well in the midterms.
That was the case in 2018, when Democrats flipped dozens of House seats to take back the House. But Democrats’ lead is not as strong as it was six years earlier, as the party has struggled to recover its image after suffering losses in 2024. The shift could raise questions about how strong a majority Democrats could have after the midterms if they win control.
On Tuesday, Democrats had a 5.8-point lead in the generic ballot, according to RealClearPolitics’ aggregate. For comparison, they had a 7.8-point lead on September 8, 2018. Voters being “generally more sour” on the Democratic Party overall is a key factor as to why they have a more modest lead this time around, Shawn Donahue, professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek on Tuesday.
Newsweek reached out to the DCCC and NRCC for comment via email. Recent polls offer a glimpse into how Democrats’ generic ballot advantage compares to 2018. Democrats are also facing a shrinking battleground following a mid-decade redistricting arms race that Republicans are likely to benefit from.
Republicans are likely to pick up a handful of seats that were redrawn by state legislators to favor the GOP. Competitive and Democratic-leaning seats have become more conservative in states like Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas. Democrats could pick up a handful of seats in California and Utah, but struggled to offset GOP gains in conservative states.
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