President Donald Trump’s October campaign blitz produced no uniform Republican improvement in polling or prediction markets across eight Senate races where he stumped for GOP candidates, according to a Newsweek analysis. The analysis covers Senate contests in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina. All were stops on Trump’s campaign tour, with six of the closest potentially helping decide control of the Senate.
Newsweek compared Silver Bulletin polling averages on October 1, on the date of Trump’s first rally in each state and on October 28, the model’s latest update available at the time of writing. Across the full period, four races moved toward Republicans and four toward Democrats. For prediction markets, Newsweek recorded displayed Kalshi and Polymarket prices on October 1, on the date of Trump’s first October rally in each state and on October 29.
Market prices change continuously and reflect traders’ assessments rather than projected vote shares. Republican candidates’ displayed market prices fell in six of the eight states on at least one of the prediction markets, ranging from marginal declines to double-digit drops in Kansas and Ohio. From Texas to New York, Trump has raced across the electoral map in an almost-daily series of rallies, moving from airport hangars and civic centers to arenas in states Republicans once expected to hold comfortably.
And the president has done so with a consistent message for his supporters: "Pretend I am on the ballot." The Senate-focused stops capture an unusually broad battlefield: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Texas are all rated tossups by Cook Political Report. The campaigns in Georgia and North Carolina show how far Democrats have pushed into the GOP’s defensive map. Speaking to Newsweek, experts and Republican campaign officials said the rallies may be more effective at mobilizing existing supporters than persuading undecided voters.
However, they differed over how much influence Trump still exerts on individual races. "President Trump is the greatest force for turnout in American politics, and that's why he is barnstorming the country and driving voters to the polls in the final stretch." Natalie Baldassarre, the Republican National Committee’s national press secretary, told Newsweek in an emailed statement. "The momentum is on our side, and Republicans are ready to fight, defy history, and protect our majorities." Newsweek also emailed the White House, the Democratic National Committee, and every campaign included in the analysis for further comment on Thursday morning and is awaiting responses.
It comes just days before the November 3 elections, when the president’s party faces the historical headwinds that typically make midterms a referendum on the administration in power. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Newsweek that Trump’s influence as a campaigner was probably waning. However, he added that the effect of individual appearances was difficult to isolate.
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