President Donald Trump is set to unveil a $15 billion steel mill in Iowa, in an effort to “rebuild American industry, reshore manufacturing, and create new jobs,” in a move that could help Republican Representative Ashley Hinson in the upcoming U.S. Trump is expected to reveal plans for the largest steel plant in American history to be built by Minnesota mining and metals company Mesabi Metallics from the Oval Office on Monday. This could hand Hinson and her campaign a win against Democrat Josh Turek, who has recently seen momentum in some polls, despite Iowa traditionally being a Republican state.
Iowa has a long history of voting Republican, although it swung Democrat for six out of seven elections between 1992 and 2021, according to election-tracking database 270toWin. In a dramatic shift, Trump won the state by more than 9 percent in 2016 and by 13 percent in 2024. The state has long been a competitive swing state in non-federal state elections but it has increasingly moved Republicans over the last decade.
In 2024, Republicans expanded their control of the House, flipping some Democrat seats, and preserved their control of the Senate. The last time Democrats won an Iowa Senate election was 18 years ago, when incumbent Senator Tom Harkin beat his Republican opponent, Christopher Reed. But things may be different this year, with Iowa Democrats “hopeful that they can flip one or more of the offices,” as political science Professor Timothy M.
Hagle, at the University of Iowa, told Newsweek. Indeed, a summary of recent polls surveying Iowa voters shows that U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek and gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, both Democrats, have strong chances of winning their respective elections this November.
Newsweek has reported on this in detail here. Hagle is one of several political scientists who have pointed to signs of voter frustration with the administration, especially over the war in Iran. Hinson, who Trump previously endorsed as someone who would be “an outstanding Senator,” seemingly noticed this, breaking with Trump on the Iran war last week.
"We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices," she said in post on X last Monday before listing suggestions such as suspending the gas tax and pausing diesel exports. "These actions to lower costs are needed ASAP, and the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end," Hinson added. The next day, she called for the House to "return to D.C. immediately to work to pause diesel exports, suspend the gas tax, fully unleash E15 and biodiesel, and work on a diesel relief program for truckers and farmers." Other issues affecting Iowa voters include the economy, inflation, rising fuel costs and the Iran war, especially farmers, who have been hit especially hard by the current economic climate.
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