The larger state of unemployment and the economy could become key issues in several of the Senate races that Democrats hope will help them win back control of the chamber in the upcoming midterms. The battleground includes six states with vastly different labor market conditions—five where Democrats are aiming to flip Republican-held seats (Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas), and one key battleground, Michigan, where they are defending an open seat. While Iowa, Maine and Ohio currently have unemployment rates well below the national average, Michigan, Texas and Alaska are all running hotter than the U.S. rate, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Voters in states with historically low unemployment may be more focused on inflation and wages going into the midterms, while candidates in states where joblessness is higher are confronting questions about layoffs and the broader direction of the economy. Jobs still matter enormously, but the old political shorthand around unemployment has lost some of its power,” Matt Watkins, the CEO of Watkins Public Affairs, told Newsweek. But does a low unemployment rate mean much to someone who has a job and still cannot afford rent, groceries, health care, or child care?” Economic concerns consistently rank among voters' top issues, and unemployment is one of the clearest indicators of a state's economic health.
The latest BLS figures showed the national unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in August, unchanged from July. Republicans have pointed to low unemployment in several states as evidence that the economy remains resilient, while Democrats are looking at layoffs and concerns about job security in manufacturing- and energy-dependent regions as proof that Congress needs to move in a different direction. Michigan, Texas and Alaska all have unemployment rates above the national average, which could make economic concerns more salient during the midterms.
Among the six states at the center of major Senate races, Michigan currently has the highest unemployment rate at 5 percent. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The gap is notable because three of the states Democrats are targeting are operating in very different labor markets.
Michigan's 5.0 percent unemployment rate is nearly two percentage points higher than Iowa's 3.2 percent rate. The states aren't moving in one direction, and in several cases unemployment has actually declined. What may matter more politically is the gap between the unemployment rate and people's lived experience of the labor market,” Tara Furiani, CEO of Not the HR Lady and SAIL for Leaders, who was also a former Chief People Officer for 16 years, told Newsweek.
They may have spent months looking for a better job, watched colleagues get laid off, seen hiring freezes at their company, taken work below their skill level, or discovered that the salary they could command a few years ago isn't available anymore. None of that necessarily shows up cleanly in the unemployment rate.” While economic conditions vary by state, unemployment generally has been relatively low by historical standards. However, Michigan, Texas and Alaska now sit above the national unemployment rate, while Iowa, Maine and Ohio remain below it, marking very different economic backdrops for the Senate races.
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