Former President Barack Obama was viewed favorably by most voters ahead of his 2008 presidential bid, but potential 2028 candidates do not enjoy as positive views months before the primary likely begins. Although the next presidential election is still more than two years away, the primary fields could soon begin taking shape. Presidential candidates typically begin announcing their runs after the midterms, though it’s not unprecedented for candidates to jump in even before those elections.
Potential candidates have already begun heading to key primary states to test their message, build up their name recognition and make inroads with voters. Obama’s 2008 candidacy could serve as a model and benchmark for potential candidates in many ways. Like Obama, the eventual candidate will run against the party of an unpopular incumbent president whose approval has been bogged down by concerns about the economy and an unpopular foreign war.
The eventual Democratic nominee will hope to run as a foil to those issues in a way that appeals to swing voters across the country—just as Obama did 20 years earlier. But early polling suggests those candidates may start off the race in a tougher position than Obama. Recent polling suggests some well-known Democrats like California Governor Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are already facing underwater favorability ratings.
Americans seem more split on former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff remains less well-known to the public, according to recent YouGov polling. Early polls from 2006 and early 2007 showed that Obama was quite popular among the electorate. But polls of potential 2008 candidates are more split, with some candidates already being underwater with voters before campaigning has even formally begun.
Many Americans did not know much about Obama prior to his presidential run, when he was serving as a first-term senator from Illinois. But his favorability ratings were still quite high. Gallup polling showed his favorability at a net +31 points in December 2006, with 42 percent saying they viewed him favorably and 11 percent viewing him unfavorably.
Forty-seven percent had no opinion of him. Potential 2028 Democrats Each bar is one politician’s full 100% of national opinion, centered on the block of people who can’t rate them. Obama’s advantage in 2006 wasn’t just that more people liked him — it’s that almost half the country hadn’t formed a view yet, and the half that had liked him roughly four to one.
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