Democratic hopeful James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are locked in a dead heat at 50 percent each in the race for the U.S. Senate in Texas in one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterm cycle, according to a new poll. Democrats view the Lone Star State as a strong flip opportunity in a long-held Republican stronghold.
The survey, conducted by Overton Strategies among likely voters from August 24 to August 26, found Talarico and Paxton locked in a statistical dead heat, according to polling results shared on social media on Wednesday, September 2. The poll is the latest sign Democrats have hope to flip the longtime GOP seat following Paxton's primary victory over incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn. A Democrat has not won a U.S.
Senate election in Texas since 1988, but recent polling has shown Talarico leading or close to Paxton. The race is expected to be among the most expensive and closely watched Senate battles in the country and could play a significant role in determining control of the upper chamber after November's elections. Democrats need to defend seats in two states President Donald Trump won in 2024—Michigan and Georgia—and flip four GOP-held seats to take the majority.
The results suggest a razor-tight margin as both campaigns head into the final stretch before Election Day. The tie also comes as several recent surveys showed Talarico narrowly ahead of Paxton. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey released in late August found Talarico leading Paxton 48 percent to 42 percent among likely voters.
Other recent polling has also suggested a competitive race: According to the RealClearPolling average, Talarico has held a narrow overall lead in the race in recent months. The polling shows a tight race in a state where Republican candidates have often enjoyed more comfortable margins. The same Overton polling also revealed a close gubernatorial contest between Republican Governor Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa.
According to results circulated by polling trackers: While Abbott remains favored in most public polling, several recent surveys have shown a narrower race than Republicans have traditionally faced statewide. The RealClearPolling average currently shows Abbott leading Hinojosa by about 3.6 percentage points. Recent polls have ranged from a one-point Abbott lead in a Fox News survey to advantages of as much as seven points in New York Times polling and eight points in surveys conducted by Quantus Insights.
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