Senate in nearly four decades, but a growing number of Republicans now privately admit that streak might be in trouble. Democratic state Representative James Talarico has led Attorney General Ken Paxton in poll after poll. While many argue that the surveys are just a photograph of a moment, in terms of money he's also out-raised him by a wide margin and has had Texas television screens mostly to himself for weeks.
Before the May primary, Senate Republican leaders warned Trump that a Paxton win would mean an expensive general election, one the GOP would need to help fund to make the attorney general more palatable to swing voters. Three months later, that money still hasn't come. Talarico has spent roughly seven times what Republicans have on television advertising since June, about $31.5 million to $4.7 million, according to AdImpact figures.
Trump has started paying more attention. He headlined a Republican fundraiser in Houston last week, framed as help for Paxton, though the money actually went to the Republican National Committee. A recent Supreme Court ruling gave the RNC more room to coordinate spending directly with campaigns, which Republicans hope will help candidates like Paxton who are behind on cash.
A pro-Paxton outside group put $800,000 behind a new ad buy last week, too, part of a small wave of outside spending that has included Lone Star Liberty PAC and Truth and Courage PAC, a group aligned with Texas Senator Ted Cruz. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report now rates the Senate race a toss-up, and many Republicans have started sounding the alarm. Some operatives raised the same concern with the White House months ago, arguing that the nomination of former Senator John Cornyn would have been the cheaper option.
"They keep saying they'll spend, but they haven't," one senior Republican involved in the discussions told CNN. Alex Patton, a GOP strategist, told Newsweek that while Texas has historically been difficult for Democrats, this race has been much harder to call. "Paxton is such a flawed candidate; Talarico is an exceptionally good candidate.
We are about to find out if candidate quality can overcome Texas' GOP structural advantages." The negativity surrounding the Paxton campaign is driving important political actors to make tough decisions. Cornyn, who lost the Republican primary runoff to Paxton in May, said over the weekend that he won't campaign for him. While the former congressman said he'll back the Republican ticket, he hasn't shown up for Paxton in any other way since his defeat.
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