The race for a Senate seat in Texas may be on the verge of breaking through for the Democrats for the first time since 1988. Two closing polls show James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by similar margins in the race—a huge shift for a candidate who, until recently, was a relatively unknown state-level Democrat. Talarico received 51.3 percent compared with 45.4 percent for Paxton in an AtlasIntel poll, giving Talarico a 5.9-point lead ahead of voting this week.
The poll surveyed 1,678 respondents from October 28 to November 1 using AtlasIntel’s online Random Digital Recruitment method. It reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Meanwhile, a New York Times/Siena College poll gives Talarico a 7-point advantage with 50 percent to Paxton’s 43.
The Texas portion surveyed 5,708 likely voters from October 23 to November 1. With a reported margin of error of approximately plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, Talarico’s lead is about twice that figure. The result therefore points to an advantage rather than a statistical tie, but uncertainty remains around the exact size of the lead.
Both closing polls show Talarico ahead, by six points in AtlasIntel and seven points in NYT/Siena. The similarity between the results strengthens the evidence that the Democrat held a late polling advantage, but neither poll predicts the election result. The two polls show some of Talarico's strongest margins in the closing stages of the race, although other recent surveys have shown a tighter contest.
YouGov had Talarico four points ahead, Texas Southern University had him two points ahead and CNN/SSRS put his advantage at six points. A Quantus Insights poll gave Paxton a one-point lead. A Trafalgar Group survey conducted October 31 to November 1 found the candidates tied at 48 percent.
Talarico, 37, is a former public-school teacher who currently represents part of the Austin area in the Texas House. Described as an economic populist, the Democrat has announced policy proposals. These include repealing tax cuts for the top 1 percent of earners, providing universal childcare and capping credit card interest rates.
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