We don’t yet know if the stunning decision by Democratic Representative Haley Stevens to endorse Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan, on the last weekend before the vote will change the outcome of the race. Prediction markets noticeably ticked up for Rogers and down for the Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive who defeated Stevens in the party primary, but soon leveled back to roughly where they were.
Kalshi gives El-Sayed 79 percent chance; Polymarket 80. Stevens, who says she remains a Democrat, had pledged to help El-Sayed—until a feud over a dubious ad about Israel made by his supporters (but not with the involvement of his official campaign) got her disinvited from his events. Her longtime chief of staff resigned, her state party denounced her, and some House Democrats now want her expelled from their caucus.
It was a switching of sides at full volume. But there’s another Senate race where a similar dynamic is playing out quietly. In Texas, GOP Senator John Cornyn has spent five months performing a silent version of what Stevens has just done.
Back on May 26, Attorney General Ken Paxton beat him by 28 points in the Republican runoff. That night, Cornyn conceded with a promise: "I’ve always supported the Republican ticket and I intend to do so again." Since then, Cornyn hasn’t endorsed Paxton, and has made clear he won’t campaign or raise money for him. Asked in September whether Paxton deserves to be a senator, Cornyn replied bluntly: "I’ll leave that up to the voters to decide." In Michigan, Stevens has defected by open declaration.
Cornyn has not endorsed the Democrat James Talarico in Texas, but he has defected from Paxton by omission. Each, though, insists their party loyalty survives. Stevens told reporters, "I’m not turning my back on Democrats.
It is this one vote." Cornyn says he remains a good and loyal Republican, and he has continued to raise money for his party’s candidates in Texas and elsewhere. But both their parties are discovering, on the same Election Day, that a primary victory doesn’t come with the loser’s coalition attached. As Texas shows, a defeated candidate needn’t endorse the opposition, like Stevens has done, to wound their own nominee.
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