A new Emerson College poll revealed which Democrats have the strongest lead over Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a 2028 presidential election matchup. The presidential field could soon start to take shape. Candidates typically begin announcing their runs after the midterms, though it’s not unprecedented for candidates to jump in even before those elections.
Prospective candidates are already testing their messages and heading to key primary states to build their name recognition and make inroads with voters. Although the first votes won’t be cast for more than a year, polls can signal which candidates have early momentum among the electorate. Donors and voters can use these early signals to gauge a candidate’s viability, and the numbers matter to a candidate's ability to fundraise and garner media attention.
They generally measure initial name recognition of potential candidates and are subject to change once the primary season kicks off. The Democratic field is expected to be competitive and crowded, with individuals like former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg being named as potential candidates. On the Republican side, Vance and Rubio are viewed as leading contenders if they choose to run.
The new poll tested potential matchups of the 2028 general election. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from August 16-17, 2026, and had a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Buttigieg held 5-point leads against both Vance and Rubio, leading each Republican 49 percent to 44 percent, according to the poll.
Ossoff led Vance by 5 points as well, 49 percent to 44 percent, while he led Rubio by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent. Newsom led Vance by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent and Rubio by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent, according to the poll. Harris led Vance by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent.
However, Rubio held a 5-point lead against Harris, 48 percent to 43 percent. Meanwhile, both Republicans held a lead over Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite among progressives ahead of the primary. Vance led Ocasio-Cortez by 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent, while Rubio held a 5-point lead, 48 percent to 43 percent.
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