If LSU is going to squirm its way back into the College Football Playoff conversation following a 4-2 start and salvage an uninspired start to Lane Kiffin's coaching tenure, it's going to need good fortune and better football. Whether the No. 22 Tigers will play good football when they host No. 16 Mississippi State on Saturday is to be determined, but LSU is undoubtedly beginning the second half of its season with some good fortune. With Bulldogs star quarterback Kamario Taylor and top rusher Fluff Bothwell both listed as doubtful on Friday night's SEC student-athlete availability report, the Tigers appear to have been handed a layup.
Taking advantage of it will be critical for a Tigers team that still plays No. 6 Alabama, No. 7 Texas and No. 14 Tennessee. After opening as a 10.5-point favorite amid uncertainty over Taylor's status, the Tigers are now favored by 17. With Mississippi State's breakout star likely to be sidelined by a foot injury that he suffered in a Week 5 loss to Alabama, the Bulldogs have lost their bite.
The expected absence of Bothwell will only make life harder on Mississippi State's offense as it potentially navigates life without Taylor, who ranks No. 5 nationally in total offense per game at 321.8 yards. Mississippi State's hobbled status gives the Tigers a great chance to start anew in the second half of the season after road losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky sullied the beginning of Kiffin's highly anticipated first season. While conventional wisdom suggests the Tigers need to win out and finish 10-2 to reach the CFP, there may still be some wiggle room.
If the Tigers finish 9-3, they will have an 84.9% chance of reaching the CFP, according to the CBS Sports College Football Playoff Forecaster. In that scenario, they would need to go 5-1 overall and 3-1 against the four teams remaining on their schedule who are currently ranked in the top 20 of the AP poll. Three of those four top-20 games are at home, including Saturday's tilt against Mississippi State.
Such an outcome is squarely within the realm of possibility for an LSU team that flashed its high-end potential in dominant victories over the likes of Clemson and Texas A&M. Getting to 9-3 or 10-2 will require cleaner play on both sides of the football for LSU. Turnovers have been a recurring issue for the Tigers, who are tied for 117th with 10 giveaways.
The defense has been inconsistent, allowing fewer than 200 yards in each of LSU's four wins and 400+ yards in the two losses. But the idea of the Tigers figuring things out in the season's second half isn't outlandish. Flashes of potency have been there, even during its losses.
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