Republican Senator Susan Collins trailed her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in a new poll of the Maine Senate race released just ahead of the fourth and final debate. Jackson led Collins by 2 points among 500 likely voters in the new poll from Suffolk University, which was conducted from October 8 to October 11. Support for Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate, stood at 49 percent, while 47 percent of respondents said they would vote for the incumbent Republican.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Newsweek reached out to the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment via email. Maine’s Senate race is expected to be among the most competitive of the 2026 midterms, and it’s one of a handful of toss-ups that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the chamber when the new Congress convenes next year.
The Pine Tree State is generally seen as having a Democratic hue, but Collins has been able to win by large margins in the past due to her personal popularity and bipartisan credentials, helping her reach independents and moderates who may otherwise prefer Democratic candidates. But Democrats believe Collins is in for her toughest race yet in a state that President Donald Trump lost three times. Trump’s approval rating has slipped nationwide as economic concerns centering around the cost of living mount, driving a national environment that is more favorable to Democrats this year.
Democrats believe they will be able to compete in more conservative states to contest the Senate majority, but flipping Maine is seen as a critical step to do so. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so Democrats need to flip four seats to gain the majority. Maine is seen—along with North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points—as a top Democratic flip opportunity.
With limited other easy flip opportunities, Democrats would have to win Senate seats in two states Trump won by double digits in 2024 to win control. This means that if Collins holds on, the Democratic path to a majority narrows. The Suffolk University poll was broadly welcome news for Jackson, but it still found that Collins held a slight lead among independent voters.
She held a 3-point lead among the critical voting bloc, 47 percent to 44 percent. But Jackson still held onto the vast majority of Democrats, winning them 94 percent to 5 percent. That would mark a notable shift from 2020, when Democrat Sara Gideon won Democrats by an 84-13 margin over Collins, according to CNN exit polling data.
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