Diesel has risen to a record $6.50 amid ongoing supply constraints from the Iran war and other global pressures, exposing a significant political vulnerability for the Republican Party only weeks out from the midterms. According to AAA data, diesel has risen to another all-time high of $6.53 as of Tuesday morning, up from $3.69 a year ago and a similar level in the days leading up to the U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28. With warnings from consumers and businesses about the impact of record diesel—which has reached as high as $8.44 in California—polls have shown declining faith in Donald Trump’s stewardship of the economy, while GOP lawmakers have urged him to act quickly to avoid any further fallout.
Trump has blamed rising diesel on the Russia-Ukraine war, argued that expensive fuel is a small price to pay for a non-nuclear Iran, and that prices will fall rapidly once the conflict ends, while also boasting about his record on fuel affordability when compared to his predecessor, Joe Biden. "President Trump has been clear and consistent for decades: Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. President Trump remains committed to unleashing American energy dominance, cutting costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families," White House Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Newsweek on Tuesday, in response to recent polling on the president’s economic approval.
As of Tuesday morning, 16 states as well as the nation’s capital have seen diesel prices climb to over $6.50. However, diesel remains significantly elevated across the rest of the country when compared to only a few months ago. Texas boasts the lowest per-gallon average in the nation at $5.97, though this is still more than $2 costlier than the nationwide average paid by drivers in the days before the Iran war began.
Using the rolling, state-by-state tracker from the polling firm Civiqs, Newsweek mapped how Trump’s presidential job approval stands in states that are battling the highest diesel prices. Civiqs’s polling shows that, in many of those with $6.50 diesel, Trump’s approval has dipped even lower than the negative 25 percent net rating he enjoyed as of September 21. Inflation and rising costs for gas and diesel have long been shown to have a significant impact on voter preferences, with the recent increases emerging as a key political vulnerability for the GOP only weeks out from the midterms.
A /Ipsos poll from April revealed that 77 percent of voters blamed the president for rising fuel costs to some extent, with 58 percent saying they would be less likely to support a midterm candidate who supported his approach to the Iran war. More recently, a Data for Progress survey—conducted September 11 to 14 among 1,214 likely voters—found that 61 percent believe the Republican Party shoulders more of the blame for rising gas prices, compared to only 31 percent for Democrats. This 30-point margin widened to 37 points among Independents, and 52 percent of voters said they would trust Democrats over Republicans to lower costs, versus 41 percent who chose their opponents.
As well as political ramifications, record diesel has begun to tear through the economy, with Bank of America warning that diesel, rather than gasoline, is the "key real-economy pressure point" given its importance to sectors like logistics, construction and agriculture. Since diesel surpassed its all-time high in early September, the agricultural sector in particular has been warning about the potential fallout. John Boyd, founder and president of the National Black Farmers Association, told Newsweek last week that "struggling farmers" were "losing our profit margin and going out of business" as they attempt to fuel equipment during the height of crop-harvesting season.
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