Fox News shifted 15 House races away from Republicans on Tuesday, as Democrats are hoping to expand the battleground and flip more conservative seats in the midterm elections. The moves come as President Donald Trump’s approval rating continues to fall to new lows in the polls as Election Day inches closer. Democrats have been optimistic about their chances in the House, where they only need to flip a handful of seats to win a majority.
Republicans currently hold 218 seats, while Democrats hold 214 seats, so only a few pickups would shift the balance of power. The update from the Fox News Power Rankings brings five new races into the toss-up category, six races into the Lean R category, three into Lean D and one into Likely D territory. It’s a warning sign for Republicans, only six weeks until the midterms.
The five races that shifted to the toss-up categories include two Florida races held by Democrats that became more conservative in redistricting, Florida’s 14th and 22nd District, as well as Iowa’s 2nd District, Maine’s 2nd District and Michigan’s 4th District. Here is a look at how all of these ratings have shifted. In total, Democrats are favored in 215 races, while Republicans have an advantage in 201 seats.
An additional 19 seats are true toss-up races where neither party has a clear edge. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have similar forecasts, but some differences. Fox News has fewer toss-up races than either of those.
Both The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball had four races classified as toss-ups as of Tuesday. Here is how those forecasts compare 42 days out from the midterms. Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Tuesday shifted three races toward Democrats.
Florida’s 27th District shifted from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, Iowa’s 1st District shifted from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, while Texas’ 9th District was moved from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Managing Editor Kyle Kondik in the update compared the environment to 2018, which he said was a “bad year for Republicans” despite no major economic headwinds for the GOP. Democrats have led generic ballot polls throughout the year, but some surveys showed a tighter margin that would suggest a blue ripple, rather than a wave.
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