The Cook Political Report shifted Senate races in Georgia, Kansas and South Carolina toward Democrats on Wednesday, as Republicans are facing an increasingly competitive race to hold onto the chamber in the November midterm elections. Democrats hope to expand the electoral battleground this year and flip more conservative seats that backed President Donald Trump by double digits in the 2024 election. Trump’s approval rating has continued to fall to new lows in recent polling, as economic concerns around inflation, cost of living and gas prices remain key issues nearly two years into his term.
Flipping the Senate has been seen as a heavy lift for Democrats. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and only a handful of GOP-held seats are up for grabs in traditionally conservative states, meaning Democrats must win some races in tough states to win a majority. But the new ratings reflect a narrow, yet plausible, path for them to do so.
The following changes were made in Wednesday’s update from the Cook Political Report. Overall, the Cook Political Report points to a tight race for Senate control, which could come down to just a handful of toss-ups in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas. Here is a look at where each race stands in their ratings as of Wednesday.
Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat first elected in 2021, has carved out a polling lead over his Republican challenger, Representative Mike Collins. Georgia is a closely divided battleground that backed Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 2 points in 2024. Democrats believe the national environment and Ossoff’s popularity will give him an advantage over Collins, but Republicans are still hoping it can be competitive, as it’s a closely divided state.
Ossoff was up 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent, in a new YouGov poll published on Wednesday. It surveyed 3,446 registered voters from September 15 to 18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. A recent Quantus Insights poll pointed to a closer race but still gave Ossoff a 4-point lead, 49 percent to 45 percent.
It surveyed 645 likely voters from September 14 to 16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Ossoff held a 9-point lead, 52 percent to 43 percent, in an AARP poll, which surveyed 1,060 likely voters from July 13 to 16, 2026. An Ossoff spokesperson told Newsweek that Georgia “is a battleground state and Senator Ossoff is already facing millions of dollars of Republican spending against him.” “The Ossoff campaign will continue to build unstoppable momentum and work to earn every vote across the state of Georgia,” the spokesperson said.
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