Russian forces lost territory for the second consecutive month amid record troop losses, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) whose latest map shows the state of play along the frontline. The Washington, D.C. think tank said it had assessed that Russian forces had lost more territory in October than they had consolidated while Ukraine's estimates of Russian troop losses hit almost 2,000 a day. The high casualty rates and territorial losses show how Russian forces "have lost the initiative and their offensive capabilities in much of the theater," the think tank said.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment. In its Sunday update, the ISW said it had observed evidence that Russian forces had consolidated or captured 53 square miles in October. Their only gains were in the Sumy and Zaporizhia regions while there were territory losses in all other sectors of the frontline, including in the Donetsk region whose capture is Moscow's priority.
Russian forces captured 10 settlements totaling 2.26 square miles but as the ISW map shows, Ukrainian forces manage to clear out Russian forces from 11 settlements with an area of 1.25 square miles. It said Russian forces made marginal advances in the town of Dobropillya, Donetsk, where they have committed resources although its capture would not allow sweeping advances in the region which would be needed to encircle the heavily defended Fortress Belt. Ukraine's now completed Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction thwarted Russian attempts to envelop that belt of cities critical to the capture of the Donbas region.
Russian forces might now try to push north from Dobropillya to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Kramatorsk and the rest of the fortress belt, but they are unable to conduct the rapid operational maneuver required for this, the ISW added. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have seized the initiative in the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Oleksandrivka directions and are contesting it in western Zaporizhia, it added. It comes as Russian forces continue to suffer huge losses, which have spiked over the last month, according to Ukraine.
Ukraine's General Staff said that there were 54,400 Russian troops who were killed or seriously wounded in October, the highest number since the start of the full-scale invasion. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert Brovdi said on Telegram that Russia's forces suffered their highest losses in the Dobropillya, Oleksandrivka, and Hulyaipole directions. It was also the fourth month in a row that casualty numbers had surpassed 40,000, posing a problem for the Kremlin following months of speculation that it would declare a mobilization to losses that are greater than current recruitment rates.
The ISW said this is likely why Russian President Vladimir Putin is stepping up the use of long-range ballistic missiles and jet powered drones to strike at Ukraine over the winter. Scott Edwards, director of Amnesty International’s Crisis Response Program, said Moscow is deliberately targeting energy and heating infrastructure intended to cause civilian suffering and this will result in immense harm. He told Newsweek in a statement that Moscow is "once again implementing a large-scale campaign against Ukrainian energy and heating infrastructure ahead of a freezing winter, including attacks far from the front lines of conflict." The International Rescue Committee (IRC) told Newsweek last month that in some regions, 90 percent of people are in urgent need of financial aid, and up to 60 percent need health services and medicines.
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