President Donald Trump's trade war with Canada has created a new political challenge for Republican candidates in several of the year's most closely watched Senate races. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods Tuesday after its negotiations with Washington collapsed, following the administration's decision to raise tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian imports. Economists have warned this is likely to raise costs and disrupt supply chains, especially in several competitive Senate battleground states that may decide control of the chamber in November's midterm elections.
Democrats' path to reclaiming the Senate runs through a mix of traditional battlegrounds and Republican-held states including Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, while Michigan is one of the most competitive open-seat races in the country. Maine is also one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities. The U.S. and Canada have one of the world's largest trading relationships, supporting auto and agriculture industries as well as seafood, forestry and energy.
Many of the states with competitive Senate contests are particularly exposed because Canada is a major export market or a critical supplier of raw materials and components for their region. Any prolonged tariff standoff could affect jobs and consumer prices right before voters head to the polls. The Senate battleground states that are most exposed to the impact of Canada tariffs include: “Nationally, the main issue, as is the case in most elections, comes down to one word: cost,” Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek.
The state sends roughly one-third of its exports to Canada, and its automotive sector depends on supply chains that routinely cross the border multiple times before a vehicle is assembled. Canada also targeted products tied to steel, aluminum and manufacturing in its tariff retaliation. If tariffs become the norm, prices will continue to rise as those additional costs are passed on to the end consumer in the form of higher prices,” Thompson said.
The state's open Senate race is one of the nation's most competitive following the retirement of Democratic Senator Gary Peters. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed has already sought to make tariffs a campaign issue. "Trump is escalating a trade war with Canada for his own vanity," El-Sayed said on social media, while criticizing Republican opponent Mike Rogers.
Ohio exported approximately $21.8 billion worth of goods to Canada, making its northern neighbor the state's largest international trading partner, experts say. Right now, Ohio faces exposure through its manufacturing, steel, aluminum and industrial supply chains, and agricultural producers could also be affected if the retaliatory tariffs persist. The Senate contest between Republican incumbent Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown has been viewed as one of Democrats' best opportunities in Trump country.
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