Russia suffered its highest monthly losses of the year in September but gained no territory in return, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose latest map outlines the state of the frontline. Ukraine’s armed forces said on Thursday that Russia had suffered 46,000 casualties last month, while the Washington, D.C.-based think tank gave its assessment of how the battlefield has shifted over the last six months. This has coincided with a Ukrainian counteroffensive, "Operation Vivaldi," in the Lyman sector of the Donetsk oblast, which has thwarted Moscow’s attempts to capture the "Fortress Belt" of cities critical to holding the Donbas region.
High Russian troop losses for negligible territorial gains add pressure on President Vladimir Putin amid speculation about a widespread mobilization to replenish troops. Newsweek reached out to the Russian defense ministry for comment. It is tricky to ascertain losses in the Ukraine war, with both sides tight-lipped about casualty figures.
Moscow has not updated its death toll from the 6,000 it revealed in the first year of the war. But evidence suggests Russian losses are rising amid minimal battlefield gains. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said last month that Russia had over 40,000 casualties per month, referring to those who have been killed and injured.
This was up from the 30,000-a-month figure he gave in June, the same month in which the British government said intelligence indicated nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers had been killed, as it assessed that the Russian military is “going backwards on the battlefield.” The September figure from Ukraine’s armed forces, released Thursday, was its highest monthly tally of the year—up from 42,860 in July and a marked increase from January’s 32,980. Meanwhile, the ISW said it was unclear how much territory Russian forces lost the same month due to the uncertainty about when Ukrainian forces liberated territory near Lyman. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied it planned a widespread mobilization.
The ISW also said that between March and September, Russian troops lost almost 115 square miles of territory. Operation Vivaldi started in early summer and has liberated at least 147 square kilometers (56 square miles), according to Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps commander, Andriy Biletskyi, who has touted the use of drones, robots and deception as contributing to the gains. As its map shows, the ISW said it had evidence that Russian forces seized 175.54 square kilometers (67 square miles) last month but lost 256.35 square kilometers (98 square miles) of territory in September, for a total loss of 80.81 square kilometers (30 square miles).
Meanwhile, the Vivaldi operation near Lyman could complicate Russia's offensive toward the fortress-belt city of Sloviansk, which has worried Russian military bloggers who offer an unvarnished view of Moscow’s war effort. The ISW cited the military bloggers' concerns that the Ukrainian counteroffensive may stop Russian plans to assault the Fortress Belt cities from the front. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Sam Wilson.
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