Prime Minister Mark Carney faces an early electoral test Monday as voters head to the polls in three federal by-elections, with a close race in Quebec offering a test of whether his tough approach to U.S. President Donald Trump is translating into support at the ballot box. The contests in Chicoutimi Le Fjord, North Vancouver Capilano and Beaches East York were called by Carney and are the first federal by-elections since his Liberal government took office.
Newsweek contacted the Liberal Party of Canada via online form Monday for comment. The biggest uncertainty is in Chicoutimi Le Fjord, where the liberals are trying to take the riding from the Conservatives while also facing a strong challenge from the Bloc Québécois. A Poliwave riding poll conducted by Liaison Strategies between August 16 and 19 put Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil at 39.9%, ahead of Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé at 35.1%.
Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault was at 15.4%. The five-point Liberal lead makes Chicoutimi Le Fjord by far the closest of the three races surveyed. A second, more recent survey also showed a tight Liberal Bloc contest.
A Segma Recherche poll of 448 voters, commissioned by CKAJ 92.5 and published on August 25, found Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil at 40.3%, just ahead of Dubé at 37.8%. Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault was at 16.8%. The poll had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, meaning the Liberal and Bloc candidates were effectively in a statistical tie.
Thirteen percent of respondents were undecided, while another 3% declined to say how they would vote The two polls show a consistent picture: the liberals hold a narrow advantage, but the Bloc remains within striking distance. That is particularly significant for Carney because the Liberal leader has enjoyed strong personal approval ratings as he has taken a harder line against Trump over tariffs and trade. Carney was already popular before his latest clash with Trump.
His approval rating rose 3 points to 60% last week, while a poll conducted during the same period showed most Canadians wanted a tougher approach to U.S. trade talks, days before the negotiations collapsed. He has also won broad support from provincial premiers across party lines, including Ontario conservative Doug Ford, who has aggressively pushed back against Trump's tariff threats, and Manitoba social democrat Wab Kinew, who said he's "100%" behind Carney. A Liaison Strategies federal tracker released last week found Carney's approval rating had risen three points to 60%.
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