BERLIN — Germany’s far right is moving to turn its landslide election victory into a knockout blow against Friedrich Merz and his beleaguered conservatives — and the chancellor appears at a loss over how to respond. Merz seemed to have no clear plan for saving himself and his party as his government confronted its biggest political crisis yet, beyond ambiguous promises to become a better, more empathetic politician 16 months into his chancellorship. Merz’s dismal approval ratings and the AfD’s convincing win have fueled speculation that his conservatives could seek a Kanzlertausch, or “chancellor swap,” to revive their political fortunes.
But Merz said Monday that he would remain in office and stay the course on economic reforms he argues are long overdue and will, with time, solve the country’s economic problems. The AfD has made little secret of its intent to turn the election loss into a still greater debacle for Merz. The far-right party is openly courting conservative lawmakers in Saxony-Anhalt to defect and join its ranks — a strategy aimed not only at securing the three additional seats it needs to govern alone, but also at fracturing the conservatives and breaking Merz’s control of his party.
Only 9 percent of people voting in Saxony-Anhalt approved of his performance as chancellor, according to one exit poll for German public television. Germans are anxious about their economic wellbeing and security in turbulent times, he went on, adding: “We must try — myself included — to connect more deeply with people, including their full range of emotions.” The pressure on Merz is likely only to build in the next weeks, particularly as elections loom in two eastern regions on Sept. 20. Merz’s CDU is headed for clear defeat in the state of Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania, where the AfD is ahead of all other parties.
In Berlin, where the CDU is currently governing, the party is likely to fall out of power to a coalition of left-wing parties. With four more state elections set for next year, conservatives face a clear choice: continue confronting the rising far right under a deeply unpopular chancellor, or fundamentally change course with a new leader at the helm. Merz appeared to acknowledge the dilemma his party is facing.
It is not up to the people to better understand our politics. We must deliver what people expect from politics: less conflict, clear decisions, and concrete results.” The AfD is attacking the chancellor on multiple policy fronts — hitting him on migration, blaming his energy policies for the country’s industrial malaise and pushing for the restoration of cheap energy flows from Russia. But many of the AfD’s most effective attacks are merely tactical.
Even as the AfD seeks to win power in Saxony-Anhalt by attempting to peel off conservative defectors, the party is presenting itself as willing to work with the CDU, knowing full well that Merz would not sanction a collapse of the “firewall” that keeps centrist parties from cooperating with the far right. This allows the AfD to simultaneously attack Merz as ignoring the will of the people in the face of the party’s surging popularity, while also depicting conservatives as leftists in disguise for preferring to work with an array of left-wing parties. The election in Saxony-Anhalt illustrates the strategic dilemma the CDU faces — and one the AfD is benefiting from.
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