Senate nominee Mike Rogers of Michigan came within less than 20,000 votes of flipping a Senate seat two years ago. But in his second consecutive bid for the upper chamber, his odds of finally winning it look worse than ever. The former congressman faces a competitive race against progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who surprised many by winning the Democratic nomination and has since consistently led Rogers in public polling.
FiftyPlusOne puts the race at 47.9 percent for El-Sayed and 44.3 percent for Rogers, while the 270toWin average shows a slightly wider 4-point gap, 48.4 percent to 44.4 percent. The numbers point to a tougher climb for Rogers, who chaired the House Intelligence Committee before leaving Congress in 2015. The race for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters has been widely viewed as a key contest for both parties as they vie for control of the Senate.
Rogers' 2024 race against Elissa Slotkin, now Michigan's junior senator and a Democrat, was among the closest Senate contests in the country. Slotkin won by less than half a percentage point, even as President Donald Trump carried the state at the top of the ticket. That result established Rogers as a credible candidate in a state where Republicans have struggled to win Senate races.
Party leaders recruited him to run again, betting his name recognition and narrow loss would give him a head start in an open-seat race. The early numbers have not delivered that head start. Most September polls showed Rogers trailing El-Sayed, though individual surveys varied widely.
At one end, El-Sayed led by 7 points. At the other, Rogers held a small advantage. The spread reflects a race that pollsters are still struggling to pin down.
It also reflects a national environment that has shifted since 2024. Rogers ran two years ago alongside a Republican presidential nominee who won Michigan. This year, he is running in a midterm with a Republican in the White House in a setting that has historically favored the party out of power.
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