Republicans view the Minnesota Senate race as a potential pickup opportunity in the 2026 midterm elections, even as they face an increasingly difficult national environment in the final stretch of the campaign. The Minnesota Senate race shifted from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic in the Cook Political Report as a flurry of recent polls showed a tight race between Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and retired broadcaster Michele Tafoya, a Republican. While Republicans are dealing with challenging headwinds nationally, Democrats are having their own difficulties in Minnesota, experts told Newsweek.
The race presents Republicans a pickup opportunity in a cycle that has been difficult for their party. Democrats have faced backlash over Democratic Governor Tim Walz’s handling of a fraud scandal in the general election, which has become a flash point in the Senate race, with Flanagan facing scrutiny over her proximity to Walz. There is "no doubt" the race is competitive as Flanagan has had a difficult time shaking the fraud backlash, Larry Jacobs, political scientist at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek on Monday.
"That's clearly tarnished her reputation, and her opponent comes back to it constantly," he said. David Schultz, professor of political science at Hamline University, told Newsweek that many voters view fraud and corruption, along with affordability, as among their top issues in Minnesota. "The question becomes if the voters are basically voting as a referendum on the incumbent party, is the incumbent in Minnesota Donald Trump or is it Governor Walz?
Is it the fraud at the national level or at the state level? We don’t have enough data to parse that," he said. Minnesota is also the only competitive Senate race where a Republican candidate outraised the Democratic candidate in the third quarter of 2026, when Tafoya raised $4.3 million to Flanagan’s $3.8 million.
The two are running to succeed Senator Tina Smith, a Democrat who is retiring at the end of her term. Newsweek reached out to the Flanagan and Tafoya campaigns for comment via email. The fraud scandal has become a sticking point for Democrats in Minnesota this year.
Republican attacks have centered around a nonprofit called Feeding Our Future, which was implicated in a $250 million COVID-era scheme involving fraudulent claims for child nutrition programs. The Justice Department’s probe, which began under the Biden administration, has led to dozens of indictments, including members of Minnesota’s Somali community. Estimates of the cost to taxpayers have ranged from $250 million to $1 billion.
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