Polling guru Nate Silver has upgraded Democrats’ chances of winning control of the U.S. Senate in November’s midterm elections, with his forecast now giving the party a 75 percent probability of victory. Silver’s FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast, published by Silver Bulletin, previously classified Democrats’ chances as “Lean D” as their prospects of retaking the chamber improved.
The forecast has now moved into the “Likely D” category, marking a further shift in the model’s outlook. The forecast tracks the races for the Senate, House of Representatives and governorships ahead of the November 3 elections. Democrats are seeking to regain control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold the majority.
The outcome will depend on a series of competitive races across the country. Silver’s model uses polling data and other indicators to estimate the likelihood of different election outcomes. Its probabilities are estimates rather than guarantees, and the outlook can change as new polling and other information become available, but the latest upgrade suggests the model increasingly favors Democrats in the battle for the chamber.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
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