The Old Farmer’s Almanac long-range weather outlook for October provides a region-by-region breakdown of weather conditions expected across the United States. As a long-range forecast, the Almanac focuses on broad weather trends rather than day-to-day conditions. It divides the U.S. into regions and indicates whether temperatures and precipitation are likely to run above or below historical averages.
According to the publication, its forecasts combine solar science, climatology and meteorology. It also says it considers climate data and large-scale signals such as El Niño to predict broader trends. The Old Farmer’s Almanac claims roughly 80 percent accuracy for seasonal temperature and precipitation trends, though this is self-reported and does not imply daily accuracy.
For October 2026, the almanac predicts cooler-than-average conditions across much of the eastern U.S., while NOAA favors above-normal temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S. NOAA also expects wetter conditions in the Southwest and parts of the southern Plains, whereas the almanac generally forecasts drier weather. Below is a regional overview of what conditions are likely during October, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac: Sunny and cool weather will kick off the month between October 1 and 10, before rainy conditions arrive October 11 to 21.
October 22 to 28 could see sunny and milder conditions, with rain returning to close out the month. The outlook calls for slightly below-average temperatures and slightly above-average precipitation. The publication forecasts a sunny and cool start to the month, followed by scattered showers October 9 to 16, as cool conditions turn warmer.
Periods of rain are expected October 17 to 21. October 22 to 28 could bring sunny weather, with cool conditions becoming milder, before the month closes with showers and mild conditions. Temperatures are expected to average one degree above normal, with slightly below-average precipitation.
Sunny, cool weather is forecast during the first 10 days of October, before rainy periods October 11 to 21. The Almanac then says October 22 to 28 will be warmer and sunny, with scattered showers and mild conditions forecast during the end of the month. It forecasts both October temperatures and precipitation to be one degree below average.
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