The first Russian diesel tanker bound for America under the deal President Donald Trump struck with Russia’s Vladimir Putin was reported idling off Skagen, Denmark, early last week. Its declared destination of New York was swapped for the noncommittal "for orders." By Greenpeace Ukraine’s latest count, this vessel, the Malta-flagged Agioi Fanendes, is one of five tankers carrying Russian diesel stemming from the October 9 agreement between the White House and the Kremlin that sparked outrage in the U.S. and Europe. European Union (EU) foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas had warned the deal hands Moscow more money for the war in Ukraine: "This is not the time to ease pressure on Russia, and Europe won’t." Robust words as Putin’s tiny diesel armada slips past the EU to deliver the goods for Trump, a friend in need as energy prices soared ahead of what is primed to be a punishing set of midterm elections for his Republican Party.
Indeed, Trump had only recently signed into law a punishing Russia sanctions bill spearheaded by his late friend, the hawkish Senator Lindsey Graham. What’s more, America had banned Russian oil imports by statute in 2022. But the deal itself and Europe’s self-satisfied reaction belie two inconvenient truths.
Firstly, Putin’s armada of tankers is more of a flotilla, far too small to matter much to American hard-pressed drivers, whose pain is mostly caused by Trump’s Iran war. Secondly, the customer Putin’s tankers sailed past is still paying him far more than Trump. The diesel deal makes more sense as diplomacy than fuel policy—and Europe’s haughty objections, however justified, come from a continent that can’t even fully close its own door to Russia.
Trump’s opening tranche is just over 300,000 metric tons, roughly 2.25 million barrels. For context, the U.S. burns around 4 million barrels of distillate a day, federal data show, so the first installment from Putin covers about 13½ hours of demand. Add the 500,000 tons promised for November and the million after that, and the total covers under three-and-a-half days—not all of it bound for America.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, hardly neutral, of course, made the point globally. Russia can export 300,000 to 500,000 tons a month, against world consumption of about 120 million. "I don’t believe the volume of diesel Russia will export will affect the price," he said.
Trump and the White House say the extra supply will help lower prices, and futures did dip on the news. But independent analysts are unpersuaded. Masha Kotkin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies called Russia’s possible supply "a drop in the bucket compared to global demand," adding: "If you are asking about U.S. diesel prices, I don't think it's going to make a difference." Kpler’s Michelle Brouhard told it would take an extra 400,000 barrels a day to materially ease prices.
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