Both races moved from toss-ups to "Lean Democratic" in the new ratings, as Democrats become increasingly optimistic about their chances of contesting more conservative states this year. Ohio has trended steadily rightward over the past decade. President Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012, but it voted for President Donald Trump in all three of his runs.
Despite that trend, the Buckeye State appears competitive in this year's elections as Trump's approval rating has slipped due to voter frustration with the state of the economy and cost of living. Polling has pointed to close races for the Senate, between Husted and Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown, and the governor's mansion, between Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton. Brown led Husted by 3.3 points, while Acton led Ramaswamy by 4.4 points in RealClearPolitics' polling aggregate as of Tuesday.
Newsweek has contacted the Acton, Brown, Husted and Ramaswamy campaigns for comment via email. The shift in the Senate race follows polling that has been favorable for Ohio Democrats, though Republicans have notably been underestimated in the past, and an overall national environment that has soured for the GOP. Ohio voters' familiarity with Brown, who served in the Senate from 2007 to 2025, makes it harder for Husted to "campaign on socialism and woke politics," Rémy Numa, who leads the Fox News Power Rankings, wrote in the update on Tuesday.
In the governor's race, Ramaswamy has faced a wave of bipartisan backlash over a campaign ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, Donna Arthur, who accused Acton of lying. The ad drew criticism as Acton has discussed experiencing sexual abuse and homelessness during her childhood. Numa wrote that the change is "less about the response to the ad," but more about the campaign feeling the need to run it, adding that Ramaswamy "has struggled in favorability ratings throughout his political career." The new ratings from Fox are in line with other forecasters on the governor's race, but they represent a more bullish position on the Senate race.
Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball give Acton a modest edge in the governor's race, placing it in their "Lean Democratic" categories. But both also viewed the Ohio Senate race as a pure toss-up in their latest ratings, as of Tuesday. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the governor's race from toss-up to "Leans Democratic" last week, with analysts Kyle Kondik and J.
Miles Coleman describing the attack ad as "an awfully risky and desperate move" as Ramaswamy "appears to be behind." Polling in the Senate race has been close, but Brown has generally held a lead recently. Husted, who served as lieutenant governor of Ohio from 2019 to 2025, was appointed to the Senate by Republican Governor Mike DeWine to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance after the 2024 election. Brown was up 2.3 points in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters from October 21 to 22.
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