Senate race as one of their few pickup opportunities in this year's midterm elections, but a poll released this week showed Democratic Representative Chris Pappas with a lead over his two potential Republican rivals. Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring at the end of her term, opening a seat in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris won by 3 points in the 2024 presidential election. New Hampshire is often decided by slim margins, though it has backed Democrats in federal races over the past decade.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has slipped over the past few months amid growing economic concerns around the cost of living and inflation, so Democrats believe they will have an advantage in the state. But Republicans believe its open-seat status and a strong candidate could put the race in play for them. Pappas is viewed as the front-runner to win the Democratic nomination against progressive Karishma Manzur, while former New Hampshire Senator John Sununu has led September 8 primary polls against former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown for the GOP.
Newsweek reached out to the Brown, Manzur, Pappas and Sununu campaigns for comment via email. Anselm College poll released on Thursday found that Pappas would have an advantage over Brown and Sununu in the general election. Sununu, who held the Senate seat from 2003 to 2009, held Pappas to a closer race than Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2013, according to the poll.
Pappas held a 7-point lead over Sununu, 48 percent to 41 percent, and a 12-point lead over Brown, 49 percent to 37 percent, the poll found. Pappas also held a large lead over Manzur in the Democratic primary, 59 percent to 28 percent. On the Republican side, Sununu led Brown by 30 points, 54 percent to 24 percent.
The poll was conducted August 17-18 among 1,411 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. Pappas has represented New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District—viewed as the more competitive of the state's two districts—since 2019. Prior to entering Congress, he served as a member of the New Hampshire Executive Council.
His family owns the Manchester restaurant Puritan Backroom that has been credited with inventing chicken tenders. Other polling has shown Pappas with a lead, though surveys suggest a very close race. A Peak Insights poll, sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, found Pappas up only a single point, 43 percent to 42 percent.
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