Democrats and Republicans are locked in a close race for control of the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, with recent polls showing single-digit races in several key contests that both parties are hoping to win in November. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, so Democrats have been optimistic about their chances of winning a majority in the House of Representatives. But the Senate map is more difficult for Democrats.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats have few clear targets and need to win seats in states that Trump won by double digits in 2024 to flip the Senate. Recent polls suggest the races in some of those more conservative states are going to be competitive in November, 75 days out from the November 3, 2026 midterms. Democrats’ path to a Senate majority requires them to hold onto every seat they currently hold, flip the two seats they consider top targets, and then win two races in double-digit Trump states.
The most competitive races in seats Democrats currently hold are in Georgia and Michigan, both of which narrowly backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election but did back former President Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 points, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by 3 points, as their top flip opportunities. Democrats hope that Trump’s declining national approval rating can expand the battleground and give them a chance at flipping more conservative states.
Their top targets are Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, and polls show tight races for those seats. Shawn Donahue, a political science professor at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek Democrats “absolutely” have a chance at winning control of the Senate in November. For instance, tariffs could be more impactful in states such as Maine, where Canadian tourism has dropped, and Iowa, a state with a large number of farmers.
Democrats have been able to make tough races competitive by running strong candidates, he said. Stephen Farnsworth, political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek the odds of Democrats flipping the Senate are “about 50/50.” “The good news for Republicans is that the path to keeping their majority runs through states that President Trump won two years ago; the bad news is that polls show that Democratic voters are far more motivated than Republicans and that President Trump is particularly unpopular at the moment,” he said. The price of gasoline is back up, and food and housing costs are increasing.
Voters blame Trump's decision to start a war in Iran for part of the reason prices are continuing to increase,” he said. Bernadette Breslin, National Republican Senatorial Committee press secretary, told Newsweek, “Chuck Schumer continues to surrender his party to tax-and-spend socialists like Abdul El-Sayed, Troy Jackson, and Angie Nixon who will cost Democrats their chances at a Senate majority this November.” Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for comment via email. Here is a look at where polling stands in each key race: Alaska backed Trump by 13 points in 2024, and it is traditionally viewed as a more conservative state with an independent streak.
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