Democrats are ahead in three critical Senate races, according to new polling from The Cook Political Report on Wednesday, as Republicans fight to maintain control of both chambers this midterm cycle. The new report from Cook shows Democrat James Talarico up over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas by 5 percent, Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson by 2 percent in Iowa and Democrat Sherrod Brown leading Republican Jon Husted by 6 percent in Ohio. Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them.
President Donald Trump won Iowa, Texas and Ohio during the 2024 presidential election versus then Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump's overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have recently slipped as households across America are consistently flagging affordability concerns. The polling lows come as Trump has crisscrossed the country in the lead-up to November 3 to rally for potentially vulnerable GOP candidates.
Newsweek reached out to Paxton, Hinson and Husted's campaigns via email on Wednesday for comment. The report from Cook highlights the narrow leads by the Democratic candidates amidst the fundraising advantage held by the GOP. The polling shows that all three Democrats are more trusted to handle corruption, inflation, as well as lowering gas and energy prices, Cook says.
Republicans, on the other hand, have the lead on immigration and taxes. All three Democratic Senate candidates are "breaking even" in their favorability ratings compared to their Republican counterparts, who are all underwater by double digits, Cook notes. Similarly, Trump's net favorability is also negative, even in GOP stronghold Texas.
The level of voter discontent is truly unprecedented.” Cook concluded that overall Republican advantages have diminished as voters increasingly view the election adjacent to an unpopular president and connect their economic dissatisfaction to his policies. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, told Newsweek on Wednesday, "This is a good sign and confirms that Democrats are very competitive now for getting majority control of the Senate. If their turnout edge in early voting continues, even if somewhat less so, on election day, they would likely have a very good day and outcomes in the House, Senate, and certain races for governor." Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, also told Newsweek that the new polling is "the best snapshot that we have, but there are still a lot of known unknowns at this point." "How will the category of 'likely voters' differ from the actual voters?
Will there be a 'coming home' phenomenon for Republicans frustrated with Trump and for Independents who voted for Trump in ’24? Are some people not admitting they will vote against the Democrat in Michigan, or that they will vote for the Republican in Texas, because they think it 'looks' bad?" Reeher added. "It’s not in the bank yet, except for Democrats taking the majority in the House.
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