BRUSSELS — A defeat for Pedro Sánchez in Spain’s snap election risks destabilizing the EU by putting the Socialists and Democrats on the back foot in Brussels and pushing them into a more confrontational stance. Sánchez, the only Socialist-aligned leader currently running a large EU country, has provided a center-left counterweight to decisions in a Council largely dominated by the center right. Spain’s lawmakers form the S&D’s largest national delegation in the European Parliament, and when Sánchez strikes a Council deal, Spanish MEPs can usually carry his position through the group, even over internal opposition.
A change of government in Madrid would disrupt that arrangement, senior S&D lawmakers told POLITICO. Polls suggest that the country will vote in an administration led by the center-right People’s Party, which would likely partner with the far-right Vox party. A second senior S&D lawmaker said Sánchez helped “balance” decisions at the leaders’ table and that his absence would unsettle the informal alliance of the S&D, liberals and the center-right European People’s Party that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen relies on to pass legislation.
The S&D has lost ground elsewhere in Brussels. Since the 2024 European election shifted Parliament to the right, the EPP has passed some legislation with far-right groups. The Socialists have less representation in national governments and fewer commissioners of their own, fueling repeated tensions and attempts to repair the alliance.
With Sánchez gone, the last center-left leaders would be Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and Malta’s Robert Abela — with Magdalena Andersson working to form a government in Sweden. Spain’s election will sound the starting gun a year of consequential votes across major EU countries, including Italy, Poland and France, where the far-right National Rally is leading the polls ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Far-right forces in Brussels are pressing the EPP to drop its ban on cooperating with them and break with its traditional ties to the S&D.
The S&D, Parliament’s second-largest group, has repeatedly threatened over the past two years to withdraw support for von der Leyen, with some lawmakers urging a more forceful stance on EU policy. Spain’s Iratxe García, who leads the group, has so far kept Spanish lawmakers in line. She faces a leadership vote on Oct. 21, though she is broadly expected to keep her post.
Should Sánchez lose his election, all the S&D’s largest national delegations — from Italy, Romania and France — would be in opposition at home. The only S&D parties still in government would be junior partners in Germany and Austria, alongside Denmark’s Social Democrats, whose hardline stance on migration limits their influence in the group. Without a heavyweight prime minister from a large EU country to keep the S&D in line, von der Leyen would face greater pressure to make more concessions to lawmakers already frustrated by the center-right’s votes with the far right.
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