Steve Bannon sounded the alarm about Republicans’ battle for control of the House of Representatives and Senate in the midterms this week, specifically raising concerns about the Texas Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat state Representative James Talarico. The warning comes from a top Trump ally less than six weeks out from the November 3 election and follows a flurry of alarming polls for Republican candidates. Democrats have hoped to expand the battleground this year to compete in more conservative states like Texas, as President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined since his return to office amid voter frustration with the economy and cost of living.
Polling shows that Republicans have “got a struggle” ahead of them, he said. And people are saying all the House is, you know, Cook saying he got three scenarios—bad, very bad and God awful,” he said. But he said there are still 40 days for the GOP to “get things done” and that Republicans are focusing on states that are “must-wins,” while appearing to be pulling out of states like North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper has built a steady lead over Republican Michael Whatley.
There are some huge advertising buys, particularly in places like Texas.” Bannon specifically discussed the Senate race in Texas. Trump won the Lone Star State by nearly 14 points in 2024, but most polls have shown Talarico with a lead over Paxton. Paxton has a “real fight on his hands,” Bannon said.
Some Texans may be “upset” with Trump and could stay home in the midterms, he warned. He also said that Talarico would be “one of the most radical people” to ever serve in the Senate if elected. Paxton unseated Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary and is set to face Democrat state Representative James Talarico.
Paxton, who has faced a series of scandals, is viewed as particularly vulnerable, though the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. has signaled that it could spend $10 million on the race. Democrats have long dreamed of turning Texas blue, and its Democratic-trending suburbs near cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston have led to narrowing margins for Republicans. From 2000 to 2020, Republican margins shifted from 21 points to fewer than 6 points at the presidential level.
The state shifted back rightward in 2024, backing Trump by 14 points, in part due to the stronger national environment for Republicans and his inroads with Latino voters. Newsweek reached out to the Paxton campaign and Bannon for comment via email. Several recent polls have dealt warnings to Republicans about the Texas Senate race, giving Talarico a lead despite the state’s reputation as being a conservative stronghold.
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